The american Express 2022 DraftKings Preview

Jon Rahm Headlines The American Express at PGA West Kicking Off the California Swing

The PGA Tour is back on the mainland after a thrilling two weeks in Hawaii. The California Swing kicks off this week in La Quinta, CA with The American Express. The American Express is back to its old form too. Bring on the pro-am, three-course rotation, and the six-hour rounds! Oh, and world #1, Jon Rahm, is in the field! Let's get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.

What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.

Last week, we got to witness Hideki Matsuyama come back from a 5-shot deficit on the back nine to win the Sony Open. Unfortunately, the guy that was in the lead was my pick, Russell Henley. Henley ranked at the top of my models going into the Sony Open. In terms of DraftKings scoring, he didn't disappoint though, leading the field with 142.50 points. Overall, the picks last week were pretty great. I faded Corey Conners due to ownership for the most part but he killed it. Fortunately, I fired a top 20 bet so there's that. Time to dive into The American Express.

All of the course data, player stats, and most of the information below can be found on Fantasy National Golf Club (FNGC). At FNGC you can view historic course conditions, course scoring breakdowns, tournament history, simulators, and official strokes gained data provided by the PGA Tour. Start building your models at Fantasy National now!

The Field and Tournament Details for The American Express

Jon Rahm is returning to the scene of his 2018 win at The American Express. He's not the only stud who has decided to tee it up with the amateurs and celebrities at PGA West. Last year's winner Si Woo Kim and runner-up Patrick Cantlay are back again. Cantlay is the current Stadium Course course-record holder after firing a 61 in 2021. A few of the studs joining them in the field will be Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, Talor Gooch, Will Zalatoris, and Matthew Wolff.

As mentioned in the intro, The American Express will return to its roots in 2022. The pro-am and three-course rotation was scrubbed in 2021 due to Covid. Both will be reintroduced this year. That means each player will play a round at all three courses (Stadium, La Quinta CC, Tournament Course) before returning to the Stadium Course on Sunday. Be prepared for the six-hour rounds and minimal TV coverage outside of the Stadium Course.

This event has been up for grabs by players of all styles. Past champs include Kim (2021), Andrew Landry (2020), Adam Long (2019), Rahm (2018), Hudson Swafford (2017), Jason Dufner (2016), and Bill Haas (2015). This event has been contested since 1960 with the recent winning scores averaging -24. The field is set at 156 with a cutline of T65 or better after 54 holes.

This is a LongShot SZN event. One winner shorter than 40/1 in the last six years (Rahm). Nine of the last 12 were greater than 55/1. Some winning trends to note include: 12 of the last 14 played The American Express at least once; 11 of the last 14 played the Sony Open the week before they won; 12 of the last 15 winners were 32 or younger.

PGA West Course Breakdown

Course: PGA West (Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta CC, Nicklaus Tournament Course)
Location: La Quinta, CA, USA
Yardage: 7,140, 7,060, 7,181
Par: 72
Grass: Bermudagrass (Dormant); overseeded Poa on the greens, overseeded rye on the fairways/rough
Architect: Pete Dye, Frank & Lawrence Hughes, Jack Nicklaus
Comp Courses: Waialae, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Louisiana, The Concession Golf Club, TPC Scottsdale

There is a ton of course history to go off of for this event which has held many names over the years. Shotlink data, however, is only recorded on one of the three courses in the rotation this week, the Stadium Course. Pete Dye's stadium design is the host course for the week and will be the only course featured in the final round. The Stadium Course, La Quinta CC, and Jack Nicklaus' Tournament Course will be rotated by the players for the first three rounds.

Not much differentiates the courses in terms of size. All three are under 7,200-yard par 72s and play as some of the easiest courses all year. Bermudagrass can be found tee to green but this time of the year, it lies dormant and has been overseeded by Poa trivialis on the greens and ryegrass in the rough and fairways.

Like a lot of Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus designs, there can be trouble. The three courses are desert-style with lots of sand and water hazards to maneuver around. Though the rough is not penal, positioning off the tee can be a huge benefit.

Key Stats for The American Express at PGA West

SG: Approach
SG: Off the Tee
Opps Gained
Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting
Fairways Gained
Par 5 Scoring

Like all birdiefests, the key is Approach and Putting. The greens have been overseeded with Poa so I would stick to just overall putting instead of focusing on Bermudagrass or PoaDriving Distance can also be an advantage at PGA West but the best iron/wedge players with a hot flatstick are going to contend this week. I love me some of Fantasy National's Opps Gained stat week in and week out but I give it a couple more notches in the model during weeks like this.

All of the scoring stats can be used this week. Each of your players are guaranteed three rounds so you don't have to be as safe as a normal week. I like to stick to Birdie or Better % and DK Scoring. Par 5 scoring will also be key with four scorable par 5s on each course. Between the three courses, there are a ton of 350-400 and 400-450 yard pars 4s. Worth a look. Finally, even though driving accuracy isn't a huge correlation to success here, I still like to mix in a bit of Fairways Gained or FNGC's Good Drives.

Though it's early (Sunday Night), the weather looks pretty chill for the week in La Quinta. Temperatures in the 60s with minimal wind the first two days. Saturday and Sunday may yield a bit more breeze but nothing crazy as of yet.

Here's a tidbit from our Nut Hut in-house caddie: "It’s a pro-am so pins are a touch friendlier and players have to navigate the nuances of having chops with them on the course. Most embrace it and I’d give it zero weight other than the fact some guys thrive even more."

If you are not yet a member, join the Tour Junkies crew and some brilliant minds in Goalby’s Nut Hut. The Nut Hut is a discord chat with tons of insight, caddie news, banter, trash talk, and most of all a collection of golf addicts that have won more than $4 million since the restart. Click the banner below to sign up!

The Picks & Fades

Each week we will give you some plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range. For all of DB and Pat’s thoughts and picks make sure to check out and subscribe to the Tour Junkies Podcast.

To Play or Not to Play Brooks Koepka

BK is once again not in the field.

$9K & Above

DB: Play - Patrick Cantlay | Fade - Seamus Power
Pat: Play - Seamus Power | Fade -
AC: Play - Talor Gooch, Abraham Ancer, Russell Henley | Fade - Tony Finau

I'm not going to come out and say Rahm or Cantlay cause those two are obvious. If you are playing small contests or betting, FIRE AWAY! For large contests, it's going to be tough. We could see both getting to high 30s, maybe even 50% ownership in some contests. This might be the time to get aggressive but with the extra round for everyone, you'll need all top 10s to take down a GPP. There will be at least eight other players that can make that happen for you.

With that said, I'm staying on the train from last week. Gooch got Na'd plain and simple. If he doesn't have to play three rounds with Kevin Na, the result at Sony is much, much better. He's superb at par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring, and loves to make birdies. Course history (CH) is great too. Abe has incredible CH as well and came out blazing last week in Round 1 before a bit of a crumble in Round 2. Two bad holes... Henley was number one in my model last week and is right up there again this week. If Deki doesn't have his best-putting event in years, Russ wins.

Just not yet for Tony. The putter is chalked

$8K Range

DB: Play - Si Woo Kim | Fade - Patrick Reed
Pat: Play - Rickie Fowler | Fade - Alex Noren
AC: Play - Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rickie Fowler | Fade - Si Woo Kim

I didn't get to my boy CBez in DFS last week but fired him off in the betting market and loved what I saw. We go to a place that suits his game, though it will be his first start in La Quinta. The irons were solid last week while his putter was colder than normal. Rickie is more of a feel play. I know Pat liked him on the podcast which makes me feel even better about it. Rickie had a T10 here two years ago when it was played normally. The swing changes are starting to settle. Once the putter comes back, Rickie will be a force again.

I played Si Woo the last two weeks and tracked his rounds. It just doesn't seem to be there and I don't think the pro-am style works for Si Woo. The irons have been off and the putter isn't there to compensate.

$7K Ranges

DB: Play - Russell Knox | Fade - Brian Harman
Pat: Play - KH Lee | Fade - Brian Harman
AC: Play - Adam Hadwin, Harold Varner III, Hayden Buckley | Fade - Cameron Champ

Hadwin has the best course history here has put up some solid results for me recently. Hadwin finds fairways, scores on par 5s, and can putt like the best of them. This might be the first time HV3 has been in this article as anything other than a fade. Varner has some baby swag, a decent result here, and has been one of the best birdie makers over the last six months. Buckley! What a great week for the kid at the Sony. Buckley has also put up some great results during his PGA Tour debut. The ball striking, par 5 scoring, and DK scoring have been stellar.

$6K Range

DB: Play - Hudson Swafford, Sepp Straka, Wesley Bryan
Pat: Play - Davis Riley, Dylan Wu, Sam Ryder
AC: Play - Chad Ramey, Hudson Swafford, Max McGreevy

Ramey is 2nd in Opps Gained and 10th in approach over his last 20 rounds. He's also 22nd in birdies. Swafford was my last sub in the 6ks last week and he made me eat it. Now we had to a place where he's won, comfortable, and coming in hot!? Ya, lock and load, Swafficer. McGreevy definitely disappointed last week but the first trip to Hawaii. Won't hold it against him. The kid makes birdies. Birdiefest. Gravy.

There ya go. Fun week. Guaranteed three rounds. Ownership will be key. Birdies, birdies, birdies. If your guy can't get to -20, might not be the play. Good luck!

THE INS & OUTS

OUT: Martin Laird, Charlie Hoffman

IN: Stephen Stallings Jr. (Sponsor), Joshua Creel (alt), Callum Tarren (Sponsor), Jared Wolfe (in on the number)

*Field is set at 156