3M Open at TPC Twin Cities 2022 DraftKings Preview
water world awaits a major championship rebound as season takes the final turn
We are on the home stretch of the 2022 PGA Tour Season. Just three events remain before the FedEx Cup playoffs kick off and the battle for monster money begins. For some, however, time is ticking and some birdies better be made before they wind up back on the farm team. This week the players head to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Let's get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this week.
What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and some favorite DraftKings picks for the week.Â
All of the course data, player stats, and most of the information below can be found on Fantasy National Golf Club (FNGC). At FNGC you can view historic course conditions, course scoring breakdowns, tournament history, simulators, and official strokes gained data provided by the PGA Tour. Start building your models at Fantasy National now!
The Field and Tournament Details for The 3M Open
The week after a major has always been hit or miss on the PGA Tour. This week might go down as an all-timer. Certainly, pricing-wise. DraftKings has made things interesting for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.
The field of 156 boasts just six players over $9,000. Atop the list at $10,600 is Tony Finau. Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Adam Hadwin, and Maverick McNealy make up the rest. Davis Riley is $9k flat with the likes of Cameron Davis, Cameron Tringale, Chez Reavie, Adam Long, JT Poston, Brendan Steele, Martin Laird, and Nick Hardy priced in the $8k range. Mark Hubbard and Charles Howell III were to join them but have since WD from the event. Joining Erik Van Rooyen on the sidelines.
This is the 3rd straight year for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Last year, Cameron Champ beat a couple of LIV guys and Jhonathan Vegas by two strokes firing a 15-under 269. Before that, Michael Thompson got it to -19 (265), getting the best of Adam Long, top-priced Finau, Emiliano Grillo, and Cameron Tringale. In the inaugural year, rookie Matt Wolff came out blazing with a 21-under par 263. Wolff outdueled Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa coming down the stretch.
Something else to keep in mind this week is the approaching FedEx Cup playoffs. Only two more events remain after the 3M and the buttcheeks will be clenching for those players hovering around and outside the top 125. All but Casey outside the top 125 are in the mix this week. The players around the top 30 and top 70 levels will also be feeling some heat. On top of the precious points up for grabs this week, $7.5 million is in the pot with $1.35 million awaiting the winner.
3M Open Course Breakdown
- Course: TPC Twin Cities
- Location: Blaine, MN, USA
- Yardage: 7,431
- Par: 71
- Architect: Arnold Palmer (2000)
- Renovations: Steve Wenzloff (2018)
- Grass: Bentgrass
TPC Twin Cities resembles a Floridian track in which someone decided to erect a golf course in the middle of a large body of water. It has the 3rd most water hazards on the PGA Tour rotation but it does accept the most golf ball deposits of them all. The legendary Arnold Palmer designed this erection of land into a 7,431-yard Par 71. To get it PGA-ready, in 2018, Steve Wenzloff came in and tightened things up.
The course features Bentgrass from tee to green with a mix of Bluegrass and fescue shagging up the rough, which has been grown up a bit more for this year's event. Of the 27 water hazards, danger can be found on 15 holes. However, a couple of holes would take some very rare and nasty misses. There are 72 bunkers also adding defense but overall, the course is gettable. The fairways are the 12th widest on Tour and the greens are the 14th largest. Fairways have been hit 70% of the time with a 74% GIR%. The greens are fast but mostly flat and are referred by many players, as some of the most pure greens on Tour.
While playing as the 7th longest, there is also a thousand feet in elevation which allows the ball to fly a bit farther for everyone. TPC Twin Cities plays just over a stroke under par and ranks as the 16th easiest. 11 of the 18 holes have at least a 20% birdie or better rate with three reachable-by-many Par 5s. The Par 3s will cause a bit of trouble as three of the four are over 200 yards. A couple of 500+ yard Par 4s will also keep the scorecards in check.
There looks to be a bit of wind and rain on the forecast leading up to the event and over the first 2/3 rounds. Sunday looks solid this far out.
Key Stats for TPC Twin Cities
- Off the Tee/Accuracy
- Approach/Opps Gained
- Putting
- Birdies
- DK Scoring
- Par 5 Scoring
- Birdie-fest Balls
The big stick can be a big boost this week. A hot putter is nice too. TPC Twin Cities can be overpowered by guys who can bomb it over aggressive lines and maintain some accuracy as well. In years past, there wasn't too much penalty as long as you didn't find the wet stuff but the rough may have some bite this week. Alas, I'll be looking heavy at the guys who gain strokes consistently off the tee.
Approach shots are always key but appear to have less of an impact at Twin Cities. Opps Gained however, is something I always like a lot because we get to see who is giving themselves the most looks at lowering their score. We have seen a hot putter win this thing but it did come from someone not known for putting. It is something to look at this week as 17 of the top 10 finishers at the 3M over the last three years gained at least 4 strokes on the field on the greens.
The last batch of my favorite stats are all scoring ones. Birdies, eagles, DK scoring, and Par 5 scoring will help show who puts the points on the board and potentially give you the best chance at winning a GPP. I think looking at past birdie-fests is also a good indicator, especially those with weaker fields.
Here's a tidbit from our Nut Hut in-house caddie: "Lots of water in play off the tee and into the greens messes with the best of tour pros so that’s worth diving into - current confidence in swing and how they’ve done on similar water tracks. It’s as much hitting it into the water as it is steering it away and paying the price for being out of position."
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3M Open Picks & Fades
I'll give you some plays and a fade from every DraftKings salary range each week. For all of DB and Pat’s thoughts and picks, check out and subscribe to the Tour Junkies Podcast.
$9K & AboveÂ
- Play - Adam Hadwin, Davis Riley | Fade - Sungjae Im
Hadwin is going to garner the lowest ownership in the top tier and I'll take it. A solo 4th and a T6 his two tries here and four top 10s in his last 10 starts including the US Open. Riley also has four T10s and has been a prolific scorer over the last three months. The ownership could be an issues.
Sungjae is a fade mostly based on how he has been playing lately. Pretty poor form and a steep price to eat along with it.
$8K Range
- Play - Cameron Davis, Nick Hardy | Fade - Brenden Steele
David and Hardy are two birdie makers who rate out super well for me this week. Recent form is solid and Davis' course history is decent. Hardy will be making his debut but that hasn't got in his way too much thus far.
Steele's ownership is way too high. I'm not against the play cause the form is good but didn't play well his one time out at Twin Cities in 2019.
$7K Range
- Play - Cameron Champ, Austin Smotherman, Michael Gligic | Fade - Adam Svensson
I'll take a piece of the defending champ at a discounted price and ownership. Smotherman's form isn't ideal but the course should set up well for him and the numbers are certainly there. I got Gligic into my lineups his last couple of times out and was not disappointed. This course sets up well for him and should be able to better a T26 and a T49 on two tries.
I was prepared to send Svensson out this week and I still might if the projections change but right now he's 25%. Hate that for a guy in the $7k range. A T20 bet might be the way to go.
$6K Range
- Play - Satoshi Kodaira, Roger Sloan, Chris Naegel
Kodaira gets the nod as the top $6k in my model. Over the last three months he;s 3rd in Opps gained, 21st in BoB%, 33rd off the tee and 31st in DK Scoring. Solid for a $6k. Sloan's Opps gained and birdie numbers are similar but also has a T15 and T16 in three tries in Minny. I typically like to get one of the Monday qualifiers in my lineup. Naegel was last in the field at the John Deere and finished T16 after a bit of a meltdown on Sunday. Easy to ignore the final round.
There ya go! Apologies for the delay and lack of nuggets for my plays. Can hit me up in the Nut Hut or on Twitter (@antcharter) for my thoughts. WEIRD week. Ownership is looking nutty. Good luck!
THE INS & OUTS
*The field is 156