The Power Fade: 2023 Memorial Tournament
The Approach to fading big names for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challange
What’s going on TJ Nation! Allen Klutts here with another addition of The Power Fade: The Fades 8k and Above that will help you smash your GPP's.
The PGA Tour heads to Jack's Place this week for the Memorial Tournament. A course many in this field have faced before, Murfield Village will test the player's ability at all levels. I am of the belief that this week will be target golf at its peek, as many players will be hitting from the same locations.
With a record of 1-1 last week (Sungjae we hit, Fowler we missed), We move on and let's talk about who will not be getting that immortal handshake from Mr. Nicklaus.
Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
Rory McIlroy kicks off our fades this week at $10,600. The world's number three player is sandwiched between Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay and presents an interesting buy low option.
However, we should avoid getting cute in this case and leave the potential of a low owned McIlroy as just that, low owned.
Why The Fade Works:
I am well aware that from a statistical perspective, Rory will always jump off the stat sheet at us. From the statistical argument, and a leverage perspective McIlroy makes total sense. Consequently this argument for the fade is going to be based on pure reality.
In the 10k range this week, Scheffler, Cantlay, and Rahm will dominate (For good reason) ownership. Playing Rory means basically fading the big three this week. You could pair McIlroy with the big three but you will have to dip down into the 6k and low 7k range to fill out a lineup. This is not likely to be optimal.
Additionally At 10.6k, Rory has to finish better than the big three to sniff being optimal. I have a hard time believing that a mentally exhausted Rory will finish better than the Stat Monsters Rahm and Scheffler, or the Course Horse Cantlay.
Folks its simple: DONT GET CUTE THIS WEEK. FADE RORY EVEN AT LOW OWNERSHIP!
Rickie Fowler ($8,500)
Rickie Fowler is back for the second straight week as a Power Fade at $8,500.
Ol' Richard Flower comes into Jack's place riding the coattails of a nice Sunday at Colonial that vaulted him to a T6 finish.
Why The Fade Works:
When you delve into the stats on Fowler this week, The one glaring hole in his game versus his price is his play off the tee. Ranking 47th in Strokes Gained OTT, coupled with a 58th in Good Drives Gained makes a recipe for trouble this week.
I am of the belief Rickie will be higher owned than people expect. Additionally, a backdoor T6 last week should help steam the ownership.
Keep in mind that Rickie had a couple chip ins last week. If those chips don't go in, we may have seen Fowler finish outside the Top 20. Muirfield is much tougher to scramble at than Colonial. I wouldn't expect Fowler to scramble like he did at the Charles Schwab.
Pairing Fowler with any of the Big 3 this week should be a common build, giving Rickie extra ownership. In this particular case, you could pivot up the board to Jordan Spieth who should be half the ownership and has more win equity.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade! I will return to you next week as we head North of the Border for the Canadian Open!
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's Ride the Power Fade!
“At 10.6k, Rory has to finish better than the big three to sniff being optimal. I have a hard time believing that a mentally exhausted Rory will finish better than the Stat Monsters Rahm and Scheffler, and the Course Horse Cantlay."
Meet the Author:
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.